BUSY Night in the NBA, with some so-so wagering opportunities, but some incredible matchups from a fan perspective. Phoenix at Cleveland, Orlando at Detroit, and the LA Lakers at Dallas are all must-see games. Without further ado:
Phoenix Suns AT Cleveland Caveliers
This is not a complicated game to handicap. Road weary Phoenix Suns coming off an embarrasing loss to the worst team in the league, against a Cleveland team that has won 9 of it's last 10 and 5 streight. If nothing else, this is a litmust test to see if the Eastern Conference is making any progress against the West. Sasha Pavolivic won't play, but that only costs Cleveland a point as he pretty much sucked anyway. In the end, I have to believe Phoenix is embarrased, and comes out with great energy. The System says Phoenix -6, but I believe it will be more like -10. Regardless, Phoenix as a 2 point favorite is a great opportunity.
Vegas Line: +2
My Line: +6
Wager: 100 Phoenix (-2)
Links: Vegas Insider ESPN
Orlando Magic AT Detroit Pistons
Looking at this game initially, I thought for sure I'd take Orlando +7. Indeed, the betting trends show over 75% of the money is on Orlando. They just beat Detroit in Orlando, are playing well, and Hedu and Rashard are both on a tear. They're also one of those young pup teams who will be very motivated to take the old men down. Upon further review, and looking carefully at the matchups in The System, this is a game Detroit should win. They'll pull Dwight from the paint, can defend Hedu and Rashard, and Orlando really doesn't have an answer for Chauncy. Having said all that, I really believe Detroit's bench will be the difference in this game
Vegas Line: -7
My Line: -9.5
Wager: 100 Detroit (-7)
Links: Vegas Insider ESPN
Memphis Grizzlines AT Washington Wizards
Another mess of a game. Both teams are struggling badly with consistency. Washington beats Dallas and Boston in it's last 5 games, but loses to New York by 12 and to Cleveland by 36! Memphis is no better, which means we have little idea how this game will turn out. For my money, 8 points is just too many.
Vegas Line: -8
My Line: -3
Wager: 100 Memphis +8
Links: Vegas Insider ESPN
Milwaukee Bucks AT Toronto Raptors
There's almost no difference between my line and Vegas, so there's no action for me, here. Milwaukee looks good with that many points, but having just played last night I can't invest in this game. This is a pure investment play for me. I think there's an even money chang
Vegas Line: -9.5
My Line: -11.5
Links: Vegas Insider ESPN
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Boston Celtics
Not much to talk about here. Minnesota looked great the last 5 games, having beaten Phoenix, Golden State and losing in Denver by 3. Still, this looks like a 'back down to earth' game. Ryan Gomes and Mr. Adriana Lima can't keep that shit up forever.
Vegas Line: -13
My Line: -21
Wager: 100 Boston (-13)
Links: Vegas Insider ESPN
Philadelphia 76ers @ New York Knicks
I hate this game. Two bad teams who play inconsistently. I actually think New York is worse at home because of how abusive their fans are to them. Either team could win by 15 and I wouldn't be surprised at all. With so many other games, I'm not going to waste any time with this ugly bitch.
Vegas Line: -2.5
My Line: 1
Links: Vegas Insider ESPN
LA Clippers @ New Orleans Hornets
Great game, but soo many points! Sam-I-Am is back, which makes a big difference, but New Orleans is on such a huge roll right now, going for their 7th streight win and coming off a huge win against Portland. The Kaman / Chandler matchup is going to be decisive.
Vegas Line: -11
My Line: -13
WAGER: 100 Los Angeles Clippers (-11)
Links: Vegas Insider ESPN
Charlotte Bobcats @ Chicago Bulls
Another tough game to handicap. Chicago would be a bigger favorite if they were healthy, but without Deng, and with Ben Gordon and Chris Duhon game-time decisions, it's hard to predict. Also, Joe Smith has been sitting out practices with a bum knee. I'll have to wait until closer to game time to make a decision here.
Vegas Line: -3
My Line: -5.5
Links: Vegas Insider ESPN
New Jersey Nets @ Denver Nuggets
I'm guessing Carmelo will be back, if he is then Denver should cover. New Jersey is not playing well, and is playing their 5th game on the road, AND has lost 7 streight AND lost a tough game in Golden State last night. Denver also has a couple of unlikely guys contributing significantly - Linas Kleiza had 23 points in his last game, and Kenyon Martin went for 20-10.
Vegas Line: -8
My Line: -10.25
My Wager: 100 Denver Nuggets (-8)
Links: Vegas Insider ESPN
LA Lakers @ Dallas Mavericks
I was surprised The System came up with such a close score, but I validated all the matchups and that's accurate. This is another game where we have to look at the numbers. Without Bynum, and Dallas winning 8 of their last 10, it's very tempting to take Dallas to cover. Los Angeles is only 2-2 since Bynum went down, and they did not look very good in San Antonio...so, it's hard not to look carefully at Dallas to cover. What's interesting, however, is that a full 99% of bettors are taking Los Angeles on the moneyline, 70% are taking them against the spread. I don't chart the over / under, but the over looks very attractive in this game also.
Vegas Line: -7
My Line: -3.5
Wager: 100 Los Angeles Lakers (+7)
Links: Vegas Insider ESPN
Sacramento Kings @ Utah Jazz
Unfortunately, Vegas and I are very close here. My sense is that Sacramento will play tough here, but will not invest in this game.
Vegas Line: -7.5
My Line: -7
Links: Vegas Insider ESPN
Houston Rockets @ Portland Blazers
Tracy McGrady is getting healthier, but they're not playing better or more consistently. I see a lot of infighting and frustration on this team right now, which is showing in some of their performance such as the home loss to Philadelphia, and narrow 2 point win in Seattle. Portland is only 2-3 their last 5, but the losses have been at New Orleans, at Orlando and at Boston and the only game that was a blowout was in New Orleans when Portland was playing it's 5th streight road game. At home, with some rest, I see Portland covering this, and pretty easily.
Vegas Line: -2
My Line: -6.5
WAGER: 100 Portland Trailblazer (-2)
Links: Vegas Insider ESPN
Atlanta Hawks @ Seattle Supersonics
The only home underdog of the night, this is a bit of a toss up also. Seattle is on a long losing streak, but Atlanta has also lost 4 in a row and 3 of their last 7. One can't help but wonder if the franchise and PJ Carlissimo aren't screwing Durant up big time. He's got no help, they let him shoot whenever he wants, and he's getting used to losing. Someone compared him to Glenn Robinson yesterday, and it's true - if incredibly brutal. I also read Bill Simmons make a really funny comment - if you want a very fast and effective drinking game, just do a shot everytime Kevin Durant takes a shot that would have gotten you benched in high school.
Vegas Line: +2
My Line: +5
WAGER: 100 Atlanta Hawks (-2)
Links: Vegas Insider ESPN
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