What Steve Kerr and Rex Chapman Have in Common

First, a few ditties on the trade, which does appear immenent. For the record, I'm as skeptical as anyone, but I'm keeping an open mind for one reason only. Steve Nash has a habit of giving everyone he plays with a career year (see: Quentin Richardson et al), so who knows what he can do with Shaq.

• I hear that both Steve Nash and Amare Stoudemire are in favor of the trade, but that Mike D'Antoni? Not so much. This is really the victory cigar for Steve Kerr on the internal debate as to whether the uptempo sytle D'Antoni preaches will win. Apparently, D'Antoni is the only one in the organization that thinks so.
• One of the pluses I keep reading, is that Phoenix's shooters will make it harder to clog the middle, and that Shaq will open things up on the perimeter. That's assuming Shaq can still draw the double team, which I'm not sure of anymore. And, if he only play 20 minutes a night, what do you do with the rest of the game?
• This gives Phoenix TWO aging, injury prone starters trying to to feel their way through the twighlight of their careers. What do you think the odds are on both Grant Hill AND Shaq having full, productive seasons at the same time?? Talk about rolling the dice...
• I also read that this won't hurt their fast break because you don't need 5 guys running the break at the same time. That's hogwash because: You may not need 5, but you need the threat of all 5. One thing that always made it tough for the Dallas Mavericks of the world, was that the Phoenix center (Stoudemire) was always running up and down the floor. That wore out the poor Dampiers of the world, and made for easy buckets for Stoudemire - especially on the break. Now, the Dampiers will KNOW they don't even have to cross half court or play transition defense.
• Taking away Marion hurts their break I don't care what else. He's one of the top fast-break threats and finishers in the league - not having him hurts their fast break period.
• Finally - do you REALLY want Shaq mentoring Amare Stoudemire? "Here's how you do it, Amare...lay around all summer, party like a rockstar in every city you go to, have surgery in the middle of the season, and play your way into shape so your ready for the playoffs...and DO NOT work on your foul shooting. Hey, look how well it's worked for me!"

Finally, you know what this reminds me of? When Denver traded for AI mid-season. Another aging superstar that absolutely did not fit on the team. With a superstar blossoming in Melo, why add someone who needs to dribble the ball for 20 seconds (I'm being generous) of the shot clock to be effective, and who shoots the ball at a poor percentage? The trade made no sense to me then, and it still doesn't. Melo is in his prime, build around him and add pieces that compliment him. Instead, Rex (as a first year GM) makes a splashy, high-profile trade that gets lots of press. Steve Kerr (as a first year GM) is making the same mistake. Yes, he's putting his stamp on the team and proving he has control...but at what cost?? Denver has yet to win a playoff series, either before or after the AI trade. We'll have to see if Steve Nash can work enough magic to make the Shaq trade work. I kind of doubt it, but you never know with Steve Nash.

NBA, Wagers and Games - Feb 2, 2008

There are a couple of interesting games, but honestly having been out of the loop for a week, it's hard to really know what's what. But the action doesn't stop just because the PSG has a death in the familiy...so, here we go:

Orlando Magic @ Indiana Pacers
This line actually surprises me. Orlando is on a similar tear as the one they opened the season with. Hedu is playing at an all-star level (finally), and there are no significant injuries for Orlando, while Indiana is still playing without Jermaine O'Neal. I still see this as a relatively easy cover for Orlando.

Vegas Line: 4
My Line: 7.5
WAGER: 100 Orlando (-4)
Links: ESPN Vegas Insider

New Jersey Nets @ Atlanta Hawks
This is a matchup of teams going in opposite directions. New Jersey has won it's last two, after playing several close, competitive games on a west coast road trip, while Atlanta has lost 3 in a row, and 7 of their last 8. The trade talk will be a distraction for New Jersey, I think. If Kidd is traded (as it looks like he will, if not before the deadline then in the offseason), then where does that leave Jefferson and Vince Carter? On a rebuilding team that has no hope of getting out of the lottery? The question is, does that motivate them, or make them give up, too? I think Vince Carter gives up, because that's what he does, and Jefferson continues his strong play. I also think Jason Kidd plays his ass off, as he also has been lately. On paper, this is a streightforward play, as Atlanta is a better team, playing at home against a New Jersey team that has played 4 of it's last 5 on the road.

Also - Money line is trending at 97% - 3% in favor of New Jersey, which makes a lot of sense given the line.
Vegas Line: -6.5
My Line: -7.25
WAGER: NO WAGER
Links: ESPN Vegas Insider

Los Angeles Clippers @ Cleveland Cavaliers

Cleveland is quietly playing like one of the top 4 teams in the East, and could almost be mentioned in the same breath as Orlando, and just a notch below Detroit and Boston. However, that was before Lebron hurt his ankle and Anderson twisted his and Sasha is down for another couple of weeks. Lebron missed the Seattle game (a loss), but isn't mentioned in tonights injury report at all. In another twist, both Kaman and Magette have been out for a week with the flu. I won't make a decision on this until just before game time. If Magette OR Kaman are out, then I go with Cleveland to cover. Otherwise, I stay away. Honestly, I'm still not sold on Cleveland being this good yet.
Vegas Line: -9
My Line: -10.5
WAGER: NO WAGER
Links: ESPN Vegas Insider

Utah Jazz @ Memphis Grizzlies
Interesting game - first Grizzlies game without Pau Gasol. BUT, if you think like I do (and your making money, so you must!), Hakim Warrick is the better PF anyway, so all they did was deplete their bench. Not insignificant, but not the end of the world anyway. Better to see Warrick getting the minutes than Gasol. Honestly, to me, the line looks about right, so I'm not betting the spread. An interesting subplot will be to see if Memphis plays better without Gasol. I'm thinking it's 55% they do ;).
Vegas Line: -9
My Line:
WAGER: 200 Utah (-350)
Links: ESPN Vegas Insider

Houston Rockets @ Milwaukee Bucks

Vegas Line: 7
My Line: 5
WAGER: 100 Milwaukee (+7)
Links:

Charlotte Bobcats @ Denver Nuggets
Line is close, but that is a TON of points, even in Denver.
Vegas Line: -14
My Line: -12.75
WAGER: 100 Charlotte (-14)
Links:

New York Knicks @ Seattle Supersonics

Vegas Line: -3.5
My Line: -6.75
WAGER: 100 Seattle (-3.5)

Chicago Bulls @ Sacramento Kings

Vegas Line: -8.5
My Line: - 12.5
WAGER: 100 Sacramento (-8.5)
Links:

NBA, The Morning After, 1/28/2008

Not a great day for the PSG, but could have been worse. The Phoenix Suns played like shit and still covered, Denver played better than expected and Atlanta just might be a pretty good basketball team.



2/6, and -404



Phoenix Suns @ Chicago Bulls -100
Great game - NOT. This was all but unwatchable. Even with Chicago playing without Ben Gordan and Luol Deng, Phoenix still almost didn't cover. In retrospect, with the injuries, should have gone with Phoenix to cover, but my analysis was correct - Phoenix was flat and lifeless, and if they were playing anyone else in the league, they would have lost badly.
Links: ESPN


Boston Celtics @ Orlando Magic +95
Great game, but don't let the score fool you, Boston was not in this game. Interesting to see how Boston played without KG. Rajon and Ray Allen both shot the ball pretty poorly, the team as a whole only shot 41%. What should scare Orlando opponents, is that they are no longer relying on Dwight Howard to win ball games. Hedu and Rashard contine to play excellent basketball, although this wasn't Rashard's best game. Hedu ended up with a game high 27 points and shot 9 free throws.
Links: ESPN


Cleveland Cavaliers @ Los Angeles Lakers -100
This was a fantastic game. Lebron James and Kobe Bryant covered each other much of the 4th quarter, and to be honest, Lebron was MUCH better defensively. Look especially at the last Cavs possession where Lebron was isolated on Kobe. Lebron waves away the screen, Kobe backs WAY off him, and Lebron sinks a - well, uncontested, jumpshot. Kobe is not all he used to be. It's almost like hes --- AGING?? It's also a downer to see Lebron getting ticky tack fouls and Kobe not. Also fascinating...Phil Jackson BENCHED Kobe with 4 minutes to go and the Lakers up by 2. Seriously - he BENCHED him. And....The Cavs go on a 6-0 run. I see Phil making his point, but fuck me, man. He threw a game away just to make a point with Kobe. And...cost me a game, too.

Seriously, whatever you read, this game was ALL about Kobe vs. Lebron, and Lebron just took the game over while Kobe took bad shots and turned the ball over. In their head-to-head matchups (and there were several at the end of the game), Lebron just owned Kobe. He did whatever he wanted on offense, and gave Kobe nothing on the other side.

Links: ESPN


Atlanta Hawks @ Portland Trailblazers -100
Bummer of a game...I've been watching Atlanta closely the past few weeks, and think they're on the cusp of being a good, playoff team (in the Eastern Conference, that is). I wagered on Portland because I really believed they weren't quite there yet, but now I'm not so sure. They led this game by 19 at one point, shot 53% from the floor, and had more assists and rebounds than Portland. The difference really was Brandon Roy. No, not his points, or the freethrows at the end of the game. It was absolutely his defense on Joe Johnson that decided the game. They weren't matched up every possession, but his defense was instrumental in Johnson's 9-24 shooting night, with 4 turnonvers. And, don't buy the nonsense story about how he was sick with a fever...he didn't look sick at all.

Links: ESPN


Denver Nuggets @ Dallas Mavericks -100
This was a very difficult game to figure out as I was watching it. Dallas looked like they were always one play or shot away from putting the hammer down and putting the game truly away. But they never seemed to capitalize, and Denver just kept scrapping. I never really thought Denver had a chance of winning the game, but they actually DID have a chance at the end. I'm trying to rethink my wager on this, and can't see going in a different direction. The only other factor that I could have considered, is that Dallas is still a heartless team. They have no spine, and maybe I should have considerd that more.


Also, this team has absolutely become Josh Howards team. Dirk Nowitski has become Dallas's Mike Miller. He's a good jump shooter, and a pretty good rebounder...but he's NOT the go to guy, not the leader or heart and sould of the team. That's become Josh Howard, although he's not yet ready for that role. Interesting team...

Links: ESPN


New Jersey Nets @ Minnesota Timberwolves +91
How about That AL JEFFERSON! 40 points and 19 boards!?!? Maybe the Suns game wasn't a fluke...we knew he was going to figure it out, but this is remarkable improvement. Honestly, If Boston doesn't win a championship with KG and Ray Allen (and I don't think they will), they'll seriously regret giving up on this guy. Wouldn't it be funny if, at the end of the day, the Timberwolves look like geniuses for trading KG?
Links: ESPN


Sacramento Kings @ Seattle Supersonics -100
This was not a great game, and almost ended in Seattle's first win 15 games. Ron Artest came back from injury, and I expected the chaos inducing, energetic, doing everything to win guy. Instead, we're getting the distracted, ambivalent, just kind of there guy. Not good for the Kings, as he goes 3 for 10 in just 31 minutes. Thank goodness for Kevin Martin, or they lose this game. Cost me 100 wagering units anyway...

Links: ESPN


New York Knicks @ Golden State Warriors -100
What a wierd game. It's getting to the point where I just refuse to bet on Knicks games. They're as likely to upset Boston as lose to Minnesota by 30. For the good of the game, and the NBA - PLEASE IMPLODE THIS TEAM! Dolan, Isaiah...everyone must go. Check out these wierd stats: Nate Robinson leads the Knicks in scoring, Eddy Curry is perfect from the floor, and 7-9 from the line. Contrastly, the Warriors put 3 players with 20+, and Andris Biedriens ends up with 26 rebounds! Great game to watch, even if it cost me a wager. BTW - Biedriens sister is SMOKING hot! She looks like a cuter version of Tiger Wood's wife.


Links: ESPN

Kobe Bryant Cannot Carry a Team (Duh)

We have this impression that Kobe Bryant is one of the great players in history, if not at MJs level, then certainly a rung below. I remember when there was talk of bringing Kobe to Phoenix to play alongside Steve Nash. My thoughts at the time were, no one else will win a championship for 5 years - if Kobe is all-NBA without Nash, imagine how good he'll be with Steve setting him up all game long? Of course, this was based on my assumption that Kobe is one of the top 10 players in history.

Then, I watched the Lakers / Cavs game today, and it made me wonder if Kobe was really as good as we are told he is. There were several possessions where Kobe and Lebron were matched up on both ends, and on both ends there was no contest. Lebron shut Kobe down like Scottie Pippen in his prime might have...and on the other end, got whatever shot he wanted. Lebron was SIGNIFICANTLY better on both ends of the court. It got so bad at one point, that Phil Jackson benched Kobe with 4 minutes left in the game and Los Angeles up by 2.

All of this got me to thinking - Is Kobe REALLY that good? Seriously...what's he ever DONE? He's never even placed 2nd in MVP voting, never led a team to a playoff series win. He has been on the all-defensive team 3 times, but his team is better defensively with him on the bench. He's like Allen Iverson - he gets steals, but often leaves his team in a lurch when the gambles don't pay off.

All of this leads me to wonder if Kobe is really about marketing and his own self-promotion. Yes, he can score, but he gets his points at the expense of his team, and his team mates. No one ever has a career year playing next to Kobe, right? MJ won his championships with role players like Steve Kerr, BJ Armstrong, John Paxson at the point, no dominant big man, Horace Grant at the power forward, and one all-star in Scottie Pippen and later Dennis Rodman. All of these players made significant contributions to championship teams, and the faded into oblivion once they stopped playing with MJ. He made everyone around him elevate their game, by force of will if nothing else. One could easily make the argument that Kobe has every bit the talent around him already that MJ had...and yet no one's game is ever elevated! He scores points, but sucks the life out of the offense in the process.

Moreover, I see Kobe's career winding down quickly. He's clearly lost a step, and as MJ proved at the end of his career, you can only go so far with a jump shot and tricky post moves.

What I saw today was the torch being passed...from MJ to Lebron, and it skipped Kobe altogether.

NBA, Games and Wagers 1/27/08

UPDATE: Includes analysis of Denver @ Dallas

Man, some GREAT games today. Great from a fan perspective, and pretty good for wagering, too. Here we go...

Phoenix Suns @ Chicago Bulls
My first impression of this game, was that it looks like a trap game to me. Once again, Phoenix at the end of a long road trip, coming off a good, emotional win, and playing an inconsistent team that can play well when it wants to. Phoenix has been developing a bad habit of taking games off, and this could easily be one of those games. In addition, the game starts at 11:00 Phoenix time, which also says to me this is a game Phoenix will struggle in. The other side of the coin, is that they're actually trying to stay with New Orleans for best record i n the West. If they look at it like they're playing against New Orleans, not Chicago, then they'll win...I just don't know if this team is able to think like that right now. They haven't in the past. I think Phoenix wins, but it's not a blowout.

Vegas Line 8
My Line (8.75)
WAGER: 100 Chicago (+8)
Links: Vegas Insider ESPN



Boston Celtics @ Orlando Magic
This is a difficult game to handicap. Boston has not been playing up to the level they were at the beginning of the year, but Orlando isn't doing much better after their hot start. Ray Allen has been struggling, and Rashard Lewis and Hedu have been playing very well. Before looking at The System, I really thought a pick-em was about right. Given how both teams are playing right now, at most Boston is a 3 point favorite on a neutral court, which makes this a pick-em game. I don't see anything in the matchup to dissuade me. I hear some rumblings about an abdominal injury for Kevin Garnett, and I really feel them reeling right now. Orlando isn't doing much better emotionally, but at home I'll take them. UPDATE: This line moved a point and a half towards Orlando. Glad I locked this on in last night!

Vegas Line (+1.5)
My Line: (Pick 'em)
WAGER: 100 Orlando (+3)
Links: Vegas Insider ESPN


Cleveland Cavaliers @ Los Angeles Lakers
Another problematic game. Watching the Cavs the past few games, they're great in the first half and then fade as Lebron gets tired, and Big Z (don't make me spell his name) gets winded. They're left with Anderson Varejao trying to bring energy by hacking and flopping, and Boobie or Damon Jones or Larry Hughes launching jumpers. If the jumpers fall, or if Lebron can maintain his energy, then they're fine, but against the Western Conference teams I don't think that'll work. Even with an injured Laker team, I don't see them hanging in for 4 quarters. Oddly, I see the line moving in the wrong direction...if it's at (-4) by game time, I'm taking the Lakers.

Vegas Line (-4)
My Line (-8)
WAGER: 100 Los Angeles Lakers (4)...yep, the line moved an entire point.
Links: Vegas Insider ESPN



Washington Wizards @ Milwaukee Bucks
What a tough game...there's just no margin here to work with, so I won't spend a lot of time. These teams are very closely matched with the game in Milwaukee. There's no money line yet, but at most I'll take Milwuakee if their a money dog. To me, this is more of a game that I'll use for future reference. If my guess is right, then Milwaukee will play tough and cover...but since it's a 'guess', I won't gamble. If my guess is right, then I'll have a better read on both teams, maybe even enough to invest...

Vegas Line (-2)
My Line (Pick em)
Links: Vegas Insider ESPN


Atlanta Hawks @ Portland Trailblazers
Just looking at records and matchups, this looks like an easy win for Portland. However, I have to look at a couple of intangibles, and I see a tired Trailblazer team. They just completed a very, very long road trip, and key starters are showing wear and tear - Aldridge averaged a bit of 12 points his last 4 games, well below his season average. Atlanta isn't doing much better, with their 3rd game on the road. These teams just played each other a week ago in Atlanta, with Portland winning a close game. The System says Portland covers, and in this case I'll go with it.

Vegas Line (-6)
My Line (-9.75)
WAGER: 100 Portland (-6)
Links: Vegas Insider ESPN


Denver Nuggets @ Dallas Mavericks
This is a very difficult game to handicap, but the line makes it somewhat easier. Denver has been playing very well lately, with only loss to the Lakers in their last 5, whereas Dallas has lost 2 of their last 5 and two of their 3 wins were against Charlotte and Seattle. However, Dallas has the leagues best home record, and Denver has lost 4 straight on the road. A lot of this game is going to depend on Carmelo. There won't be any word on if he'll play until game time, so this is a tough game to invest in. By the line, Vegas is betting he won't play and they would know better than anyone else. The Systems says the game is much closer, even without Melo, but I'm very underwhelmed with Denver's performance on the road. 4 of their last 5 road games, they've failed to cover, and honestly been blown out all 4, including at Charlotte and at Atlanta. if they lost by 11 in Atlanta with Melo, I don't see how they get any closer in this game.

Vegas Line (+11)
My Line (+3.75 if Melo plays) or (+5.75) if he doesn't.
WAGER: 100 Dallas (-11)
Links: Vegas Insider ESPN


New Jersey Nets @ Minnesota Timberwolves
This is a mess of a game. New Jersey has played their last 5 on the road, losing all of them...but Minnesota has played 4 of their last 5 on the road also. The difference has been that Minnesota has been playing well, and beating great teams or playing them close, whereas New Jersey hasn't played anyone all that close. An aging team at the end of a long road trip, playing a young team who has played well, especially at home. I'm not happy about this game, but the line is close, so Minnesota looks good.
Vegas Line (-1)
My Line (-5)
WAGER: 100 Minnesota Timberwolves (-1)
Links: Vegas Insder ESPN


Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets
I'm staying away from this game. Tracey McGrady hasn't played well, but rest of the matchups are too close to call, and the Vegas line is too close to They System. Best of luck to anyone who sees an angle here...
Vegas Line (-3)
My Line (-1.5)
Links: Vegas Insider ESPN


Sacramento Kings @ Seattle Supersonics
Not much to like here, either. I have to believe that Sacramento is playing better, and all of you know must understand my emotional and irrational disgust for all things Seattle. I'm taking Sacramento to cover.

Vegas Line (+4)
My Line (+3.75)
WAGER: Sacramento (+4)
Links: Vegas Insider ESPN


New York Knicks @ Golden State Warriors
There isn't a single matchup that goes to New Yorks favor. I know the Knicks are on a bit of a roll, but in Golden State, I just don't see tha they have a shot here. Eddie Curry and Zach Randolph are two of their best weapons, and they'll struggle to stay on the floor in this track meet. Nate Robinson CANNOT play with Baron Davis, so this Golden State covers. Update: for some reason, the line moved down .5 point since it opened.

Vegas Line (-10)
My Line (-18)
WAGER: 100 Golden State Warriors (-10)
Links: Vegas Insider ESPN

NBA, The Morning After 1/27/2008

The PSG had a good day yesterday, going 3/4 with a +177. No records were set, but that's a good day.

A few comments on the games:

Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat +87

Miami had to win eventually, and catching an injured Indiana team playing it's 5th game on the road was a great opportunity. What was surprising, was how much trouble they had with the victory. Indiana did everything they could to lose it, and still almost won.

• Miami shot almost 50% from the floor, but nothing was easy. Wade had a very effecient 35 points, but a lot of the shots didn't look like they had a chance.


• Mark Freaking Blount had another monster game - 19 points on 8/14 shooting.

LA Clippers @ Memphis Grizzlies +95
Verrryy good game. Memphis won WITHOUT Pau Gasol and Stromile Swift. Rudy Gay had a monster game, the man is really coming into his own in this league. It wasn't just the 34 points on 13-25 shooting, but TWELVE rebounds! Even though LA was doing everything it could to keep the game close, I was honestly never worried. Corey Magette made 16 free throws, but Sam-I-Am took 19 shots which is not good for a Clipper team.

New Orleans @ San Antonion +95
This game went about the way I expected it to. New Orleans is playing better than any other team in the NBA right now. I'm telling you, this game was absolutely as close as the score, and San Antonio was playing like it was a playoff game. If these teams played a 7-game series, new Orleans wins in 5 or 6.

It was funny watching Pop try and find someone to guard Chris Paul. Tony Parker started, but that didn't last long...then he tried Bruce Bowen, and for some reason Parker gets the calls Wade gets on Bruce Bowen -- maybe the refs are finally on to him grabbing and swiping at everything? At one point, I saw Chris Paul spend 4 streight possessions riding the refs about what Bowen was doing, and they just had to call it. He was still playing at a high level, but he was not going to let the ref's ignore it, and in the end they couldn't. Steve Nash will try and move on and forget about it, but Chris Paul wouldn't. And, Jacque Vaughn didn't have any better luck. Update: The official box score shows Bruce Bowen with ZERO fouls...um, must be a mistake in the box score....either that or the refs were giving the fouls to someone else. Wierd. How does someone who plays defense like Bruce Bowen go an entire game without committing a foul??

NBA, The Morning After 1/26/08

First, my apologies for not reporting as I should...between waking up at 10:30am this morning, and some craziness on the home front, my schedule's been pretty off.

A few observations from the 1/25 games:

The Phoenix @ Cleveland game was just a fantastic game. But, I'm not sure Cleveland is really as good as the score indicated.

• First, they are riding LeBron into the ground. You read it here first, in a couple of years, he's going to have a rash of injuries.
• Second, you see teams hang with Phoenix early (sometimes), but they just wear down by the end of the game. The 4th quarter, Cleveland started missing layups and jumpshots they were making earlier.
• Finally, I saw Cleveland try a strategy I haven't seen much. They just packed the lane in and left the 3-poiont line pretty much uncontested. The result? 55% shooting on 33 three pointers...that's 51 points from downtown for those scoring at home. I'm guess no one will try that strategy again...

The Minnesota @ Boston game was fascinating. I think there's a couple of things we have to look at:

• It looks like Boston is coming back down to earth, which was expected. Ray Allen and Paul Pierce combined to go 8 for 33, although Pierce had the better game by far. Pretty soon, we might have to look at Ray Allen as a marginal acquisition?
• Nice to see Al Jefferson come back to earth, too. 6-14 with 5 rebounds...hmmm, maybe the Suns interior defense really DOES suck.
• Wierd to see Sebastion Frigging Telfair lead his team in scoring - with 18.

The New Jersey Nets @ Denver Nuggets game was boring as all hell, only a homer could have watched that game:

• Denver's interior defense is just TOUGH. Between Camby and Kenyon Martin, they have 2 of the longest, most athletic big men in the league. What's more? They're mean, scrappy and relentless. When Nene comes back, they'll be able to compete with anyone in the league in the paint.
• Kenyon Martin is looking like the K-Mart of old. He looks like he's got about 5 more inches on his vertical, a quick second jump and remarkable quickness.

The Orlando Magic @ Detroit Pistons game was, well...

• ...proof that Detroit isn't ready to cede ground to the up-and-coming Eastern Conference teams. They came out hungry, played with a ton of energy, and just flat out beat Orlando. They played fairly well offensively, but had no answer for Detroit on the defensive end.
• When is Tayshaun going to start playing basketball again? Detroit won easily, and only 8 points on 3-12 shooting. I know he had 8 rebounds and 6 assists, but he's got to shoot the ball better than that.