I'm glad yesterday happened early in my blogging efforts. One thing people fail to really understand, is that there are some serious losing streaks in Pro Sports Gambling. You only have to be right about 55% of the time to make a decent living at this, and that means you'll go 25% one week and 75% the next....it averages out. Don't expect me (or ANY sports bettor) to make 70% of their plays on a consistent average.
So, yesterday was full of (almost) upsets, as only one team covered. Considering the lopsided matchups, that's a noteworthy event.
New Jersey Nets @ Golden State Warriors -100
I'm still watching this game right now, and I still can't for the life of me figure out how NJ stayed in this game. The stats were all over the place, but the two key ones were: They outrebounded Golden State by 18, and took 10 more shots. I have to say, if you weren't looking at the score, you'd think Golden State won by 20. They're playing with more energy, blocking shots, playing very good D. 51% of the bettors took NJ +410, and came THHHIIIIISS close to tremendous payday. Heh heh. And kudos to anyone who had the guts to take the over, all 68% of you...
An aside as I'm watching this game: I love Nelly, I love his style of play, his coaching style, and especially the way he'll go against any kind of conventional wisdom to win a game. However, his hack-a-Josh Boone strategy sucked, and he stuck with it WAAYYY too long. You ready for this funny stat? Josh Boone shot more free throws than Vince Carter, Jason Kidd and Richard Jefferson - combined! He shot as many free throws as the entire rest of the New Jersey Nets --- and made almost half of them. That strategy works if he shoots his 34% average, I'm still not sure it's a good idea. It really fired up New Jersey, and even Reggie Miller was cheering for him to make a free throw. It was really a momentum changer.
Another aside...Cheryl Miller just did the dreaded mid-game interview with Don Nelson. The man is honest, if nothing else. He just admitted that he screwed up with the hack-a-Boone strategy. Among other things, he slowed the tempo down and threw Golden State off THEIR rhythm. I was reminded of something Mike D'Antoni said...he hates free throws for either team because they slow the game down. Something for Don Nelson to think about....
Indiana Pacers @ Milwaukee Bucks +97
I was relieved as hell that I reversed my prelimenary thoughts on this game, my only winner of the night. Michael Redd took 29 shots, and 13 3-pointers, and finished with a stellar 37 points. Another key factor was that Mo Williams played, and finished with 9 assists.
San Antonio Spurs @ Miami Heat -100
This also looked like the no-brainer of the night, and on the surface it should have been. As predicted, Miami had no one to handle Duncan, who went for 30-11, and Dwayne Wade took 23 shots to get his 27. (Aside, why is is that Bowen will get fouls called on him ONLY if it's Dwayne Wade? Can you imagine if he was officiated like that for every player? You don't think Steve Nash and Kobe are begging for those calls??) The difference maker in this game? It's funny, I was driving home from the bar and I was thinking...they've got Mark Blount - that's all Miami has. This should be a massacre. And what does he do? 23 points on 85% shooting!! Yes, the same guy who scored 18 points in his last 5 games -- combined. He unleashed a variety of moves - up and unders, spin moves, pump fakes and a set shot from just inside the free throw line that had so much arc on it, it literally left the camera...you couldn't see it until it started coming down, and for a second you had to wonder if it just kept going up. It almost literally came streight down into the basket. One of those nights.
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