NBA, Games and Wagers 1/27/08

UPDATE: Includes analysis of Denver @ Dallas

Man, some GREAT games today. Great from a fan perspective, and pretty good for wagering, too. Here we go...

Phoenix Suns @ Chicago Bulls
My first impression of this game, was that it looks like a trap game to me. Once again, Phoenix at the end of a long road trip, coming off a good, emotional win, and playing an inconsistent team that can play well when it wants to. Phoenix has been developing a bad habit of taking games off, and this could easily be one of those games. In addition, the game starts at 11:00 Phoenix time, which also says to me this is a game Phoenix will struggle in. The other side of the coin, is that they're actually trying to stay with New Orleans for best record i n the West. If they look at it like they're playing against New Orleans, not Chicago, then they'll win...I just don't know if this team is able to think like that right now. They haven't in the past. I think Phoenix wins, but it's not a blowout.

Vegas Line 8
My Line (8.75)
WAGER: 100 Chicago (+8)
Links: Vegas Insider ESPN



Boston Celtics @ Orlando Magic
This is a difficult game to handicap. Boston has not been playing up to the level they were at the beginning of the year, but Orlando isn't doing much better after their hot start. Ray Allen has been struggling, and Rashard Lewis and Hedu have been playing very well. Before looking at The System, I really thought a pick-em was about right. Given how both teams are playing right now, at most Boston is a 3 point favorite on a neutral court, which makes this a pick-em game. I don't see anything in the matchup to dissuade me. I hear some rumblings about an abdominal injury for Kevin Garnett, and I really feel them reeling right now. Orlando isn't doing much better emotionally, but at home I'll take them. UPDATE: This line moved a point and a half towards Orlando. Glad I locked this on in last night!

Vegas Line (+1.5)
My Line: (Pick 'em)
WAGER: 100 Orlando (+3)
Links: Vegas Insider ESPN


Cleveland Cavaliers @ Los Angeles Lakers
Another problematic game. Watching the Cavs the past few games, they're great in the first half and then fade as Lebron gets tired, and Big Z (don't make me spell his name) gets winded. They're left with Anderson Varejao trying to bring energy by hacking and flopping, and Boobie or Damon Jones or Larry Hughes launching jumpers. If the jumpers fall, or if Lebron can maintain his energy, then they're fine, but against the Western Conference teams I don't think that'll work. Even with an injured Laker team, I don't see them hanging in for 4 quarters. Oddly, I see the line moving in the wrong direction...if it's at (-4) by game time, I'm taking the Lakers.

Vegas Line (-4)
My Line (-8)
WAGER: 100 Los Angeles Lakers (4)...yep, the line moved an entire point.
Links: Vegas Insider ESPN



Washington Wizards @ Milwaukee Bucks
What a tough game...there's just no margin here to work with, so I won't spend a lot of time. These teams are very closely matched with the game in Milwaukee. There's no money line yet, but at most I'll take Milwuakee if their a money dog. To me, this is more of a game that I'll use for future reference. If my guess is right, then Milwaukee will play tough and cover...but since it's a 'guess', I won't gamble. If my guess is right, then I'll have a better read on both teams, maybe even enough to invest...

Vegas Line (-2)
My Line (Pick em)
Links: Vegas Insider ESPN


Atlanta Hawks @ Portland Trailblazers
Just looking at records and matchups, this looks like an easy win for Portland. However, I have to look at a couple of intangibles, and I see a tired Trailblazer team. They just completed a very, very long road trip, and key starters are showing wear and tear - Aldridge averaged a bit of 12 points his last 4 games, well below his season average. Atlanta isn't doing much better, with their 3rd game on the road. These teams just played each other a week ago in Atlanta, with Portland winning a close game. The System says Portland covers, and in this case I'll go with it.

Vegas Line (-6)
My Line (-9.75)
WAGER: 100 Portland (-6)
Links: Vegas Insider ESPN


Denver Nuggets @ Dallas Mavericks
This is a very difficult game to handicap, but the line makes it somewhat easier. Denver has been playing very well lately, with only loss to the Lakers in their last 5, whereas Dallas has lost 2 of their last 5 and two of their 3 wins were against Charlotte and Seattle. However, Dallas has the leagues best home record, and Denver has lost 4 straight on the road. A lot of this game is going to depend on Carmelo. There won't be any word on if he'll play until game time, so this is a tough game to invest in. By the line, Vegas is betting he won't play and they would know better than anyone else. The Systems says the game is much closer, even without Melo, but I'm very underwhelmed with Denver's performance on the road. 4 of their last 5 road games, they've failed to cover, and honestly been blown out all 4, including at Charlotte and at Atlanta. if they lost by 11 in Atlanta with Melo, I don't see how they get any closer in this game.

Vegas Line (+11)
My Line (+3.75 if Melo plays) or (+5.75) if he doesn't.
WAGER: 100 Dallas (-11)
Links: Vegas Insider ESPN


New Jersey Nets @ Minnesota Timberwolves
This is a mess of a game. New Jersey has played their last 5 on the road, losing all of them...but Minnesota has played 4 of their last 5 on the road also. The difference has been that Minnesota has been playing well, and beating great teams or playing them close, whereas New Jersey hasn't played anyone all that close. An aging team at the end of a long road trip, playing a young team who has played well, especially at home. I'm not happy about this game, but the line is close, so Minnesota looks good.
Vegas Line (-1)
My Line (-5)
WAGER: 100 Minnesota Timberwolves (-1)
Links: Vegas Insder ESPN


Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets
I'm staying away from this game. Tracey McGrady hasn't played well, but rest of the matchups are too close to call, and the Vegas line is too close to They System. Best of luck to anyone who sees an angle here...
Vegas Line (-3)
My Line (-1.5)
Links: Vegas Insider ESPN


Sacramento Kings @ Seattle Supersonics
Not much to like here, either. I have to believe that Sacramento is playing better, and all of you know must understand my emotional and irrational disgust for all things Seattle. I'm taking Sacramento to cover.

Vegas Line (+4)
My Line (+3.75)
WAGER: Sacramento (+4)
Links: Vegas Insider ESPN


New York Knicks @ Golden State Warriors
There isn't a single matchup that goes to New Yorks favor. I know the Knicks are on a bit of a roll, but in Golden State, I just don't see tha they have a shot here. Eddie Curry and Zach Randolph are two of their best weapons, and they'll struggle to stay on the floor in this track meet. Nate Robinson CANNOT play with Baron Davis, so this Golden State covers. Update: for some reason, the line moved down .5 point since it opened.

Vegas Line (-10)
My Line (-18)
WAGER: 100 Golden State Warriors (-10)
Links: Vegas Insider ESPN